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The Strategic Assumption Surfacing and Testing (SAST) methodology, developed by Richard O. Mason and Ian I. Mitroff, is an approach to tackle uncertainty and ambiguity in strategic planning by fostering collaboration, promoting critical thinking, and minimizing risks. It works by questioning assumptions that haven’t been fully examined, helping people make smarter, better decisions. This approach ensures that the key assumptions behind plans are carefully checked so strategies are based on solid facts, not faulty or untested beliefs.
Often, the assumptions driving strategic plans remain implicit, unspoken, and not discussed. These assumptions act like cracks in the foundation. SAST creates a process to identify, surface, and rigorously test the assumptions that inform decisions.
SAST sets the stage by making these assumptions explicit for deeper analysis and encouraging teams to question, debate, and refine their underlying beliefs. Once assumptions have been surfaced and debated, they are rigorously tested for validity using evidence, logic, or even hypothetical scenario analysis. This critical testing phase allows teams to assess how solid their assumptions really are. Finally, insights from these debates and tests are synthesized into an integrated and refined strategy—one that is more adaptable and reliable.
SAST applications are broad, ranging from policy development to resolving complex organizational challenges to tackling ‘wicked problems’ that lack clear solutions.
SAST is centred around critical thinking and collaboration, promoting clear, reflective, and adaptable decision-making, ensuring strategies are equipped to withstand the unexpected.
Russell L. Ackoff shows us four ways to handle problems – some better than others. Here they are, explained simply:Â Â Â
And then, there’s Dissolution, the superhero of problem-solving. Dissolution doesn’t just fix problems – it removes them completely by redesigning the system around them. The problem? Gone for good.  Â
Here’s an example Ackoff gives. Imagine you’ve got a headache. Do you need brain surgery? Of course not! You take a pill instead. Why? Because you understand how the body works – how the pill moves through your system to make the pain go away.  Â
The same logic applies to bigger issues. Problems in organizations don’t exist alone. To dissolve them, you need to step back and see how all the parts interact. When you fix the larger system, the problem disappears and doesn’t come back.  Â
The takeaway? Don’t just patch up problems. Change the system so they don’t happen at all. That’s problem dissolving. 💡Â
“We all live our lives according to the assumptions we make about ourselves and our world. To coup better, we need to surface those assumptions and to challenge them. New assumptions then become springboards to effective change.” – Richard O. Mason and Ian I. MitroffÂ
Here’s a fun twist for your mental gears – this month’s quote reminds us that our lives are like a never-ending improv show, based on the assumptions we rehearse daily. Richard O. Mason and Ian I. Mitroff hit the nail on the head with their observation that “we all live our lives according to the assumptions we make about ourselves and our world.” But here’s the kicker—most of us don’t even realize what assumptions we’re basing our performance on. 🤔Â
For systems thinkers, this idea is pure gold. Why? Because assumptions are the hidden scaffolding of every system, from a family dinner plan to global economies. When we don’t question the implicit rules we’ve set, we’re like architects building a skyscraper on toothpicks. Spoiler alert: things topple.Â
Systems thinking thrives on seeing the unseen—the connections, patterns, and yes, assumptions that drive outcomes. Mason and Mitroff’s advice to surface and challenge assumptions? It’s like giving systems thinkers their version of X-ray vision. When you call out an assumption (say, “Customers only care about price”) and test it, you’re opening the door to rethinking an entire framework. Maybe customers also care about sustainability or loyalty perks! Suddenly, you’ve got a brand-new springboard for innovation or change.Â
Now, here’s the fun part – surfacing assumptions is like being part detective and part philosopher. Ask questions like, What do we believe to be true? Or what would happen if this assumption were false? Each question acts as a flashlight into the system’s dark corners, where big “aha!” moments often hide.Â
The beauty of this approach? When you challenge assumptions, you invite flexibility into the system. Your thinking shifts from rigid roads to dynamic networks where new possibilities emerge – just the kind of fluidity systems thinkers love. Old assumptions may crumble, but what’s left is fertile ground for innovative solutions.Â
Bottom line? This quote is a call to action for anyone who loves the art of complex problem-solving. What assumptions are shaping your thinking – and are they really still serving you? Keep asking, keep challenging, and watch your systems evolve. 🌱Â
March was a month to remember for the Systems Thinking Alliance! During one of our CSTA sessions, we had not one, but two dedicated participants dialing in all the way from Malaysia and Singapore. The kicker? These two systems thinkers pulled an all-nighter to attend the session, which was hosted in the North American EST timezone. Talk about commitment! 🦉
Their dedication highlighted something we couldn’t ignore—systems thinking is on the rise in East Asia and Australia. The demand is real, and honestly, staying awake through the night is a heroic energy drink-fueled feat, but it shouldn’t have to be the norm. Cue our next big move 🎉.
We’re thrilled to announce that the Systems Thinking Alliance is officially launching our first-ever CSTA training course tailored to East Asia and Australia time zones! Now, our systems-thinking stars in the region can engage without battling time zone fatigue. Trust us, you’ll want to show up bright-eyed for everything we’ve packed into this one!
Curious to learn more or thinking this might be your chance to join the systems thinking wave? Check out all the details on our website. 🌟
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